Impacts of Monetary Policy on Inflation in Bangladesh
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18034/gdeb.v1i2.198Keywords:
Monetary Policy, Inflation, BangladeshAbstract
The objective of this paper is to analyze and discuss the impacts of monetary policy on Bangladesh inflation, identify the major drawbacks of the policies in minimizing the inflation rate and suggest policy recommendations on some key issues of Bangladesh inflation. To estimate the effects of the monetary policy in Bangladesh, at first the impact of different monetary policy tools used by the “Central Banks” of the developed countries have been reviewed. Next, the impact of the monetary policy of Bangladesh Bank and government have been analyzed for which the data on money supply, growth of the GDP, changes in the price level, and changes in the unemployment rate have been quantitatively analyzed. We mainly used Consumer Price Index to determine the level on inflation in Bangladesh. Moreover, our study focuses on data collected from the 1950-2012, mainly focusing our study from the period of 2000-2012 as major transitions have been observed in the economy during the 12 years. We have further analyzed whether there is any correlation between (i) inflation rates and money supply, and (ii) inflation rates and growth of GDP. On the basis of the outcome of the qualitative and quantitative analysis, in the end findings and conclusion have been drawn. We have found the correlation, the impacts of monetary policy and inflation, their drawbacks and possible solutions such as independence of the monetary policy from the fiscal policy and enhancing the transparency, communication and signaling effect of policy moves, keeping the broad money in line with the estimated real GDP growth, borrowing from non-bank sources, and control money supply through various open market operations. Due to lack of access to sufficient data, some of our work is based on hypothesis and models. So some data vary according to the model being used. Lastly, even though, many works have been done from the perspective of developed and other developing countries, much work has not been carried out to establish the relationship between monetary policy and inflation in Bangladesh.
GEL Classification Code: E31; E42; E50
Downloads
References
Aghevli and Khan. 1978, "Government Deficits and the Inflationary Process in Developing Countries", IMF, Staff Papers, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 146-162 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3866678
Ahmed, S. 1977 “Demand for Money in Bangladesh: Some Preliminary Evidence”, Bangladesh Development Studies, vol-5, issue-2, pp. 264-286
Ali and Islam 2010,Money Supply Function for Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis. AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series, No 2010-01
Andreas and Reschreiter, 2011 The effects of the monetary policy regime shift to inflation targeting on the real interest rate in the United Kingdom, Economic modelling. -Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, ISSN 0264-9993, ZDB-ID 868243. - Vol. 28, 1/2, pp. 754-759 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.04.009
Antonio, 2012, Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Time‐Frequency View. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 74, Issue 6, pp. 875-885, 2012 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00680.x
Ball and Mankiw et al, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2534424
Bangladesh Economic Update. (2011). Food Prices and Inflation Trajectory. Bangladesh Economic Update. Volume 2, No. 1, January-February 2011
Bhattacharya and Khan, 2009, Recent Monetary Policy Statement of Bangladesh Bank, An Analytical Commentary, Occasional Paper: 82, JEL codes: E52 F31 F33
Bhuiyan and Lucas et al, 2007, “Real and nominal effects of monetary policy shocks”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 40, 2,pp. 679-702. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00426.x
Bhuiyan, 2009, “Monetary transmission mechanism in a small open economy: a Bayesian structural VAR approach”, Queens Economics Department Working Paper No.1183
Bhuiyan 2012, The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Bangladesh: A Bayesian Structural VAR Approach In International Economic Journal, 26(02), pp. 301-316. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2011.552514
Biswas, Winckler et al 2011: Approximation of the influence of Monetary Policy on economic growth, employment generation, and inflation- A case study in Bangladesh, IJRFM Volume 1, Issue 3 (July, 2011) (ISSN 2231-5985)
Bruno & Easterly 1998, Inflation Crises and Long-run Growth. J. of Monetary Economics, 41: pages 3-26 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00063-9
Cagan 1956 "Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation", in M. Friedman, editor, Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 47-68
Cavoli and Ramkishen, et al, 2008, Open economy inflation targeting arrangements and monetary policy rules: application to India, Indian growth and development review. - Bingley: Emerald, ISSN 1753-8254, ZDB-ID 24625097. - Vol. 1.2008, 2, pp. 237-251 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/17538250810903800
Chowdhury and Abdur, 1986, “Vector auto regression as an alternative macro-modeling technique”, Bangladesh Development Studies, 14, pp. 21-32.
Chowdhury and Dao 1995. "Monetary policy, output and inflation in Bangladesh: a dynamic analysis,"Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 51-55 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/135048595357555
Cochrane, 1999. "A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 323-421 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/ma.13.4623752
Cristadoro and Veronese, 2011,"Monetary policy in India: is something amiss?", Indian Growth and Development Review, Vol. 4 Iss: 2 pp. 166 – 192 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/17538251111172069
Deaver, 1970, "The Chilean Inflation and the Demand for Money", in D.M. Meiselman (ed.), Varieties of Monetary Experience, Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 132-145
ECB 2001, A guide to Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projection exercises, June.
Fischer and Stanley 1983 Indexation and Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics 12,pp. 519–541. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90037-5
Fischer, S., 1993. The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics 32 (3), pp. 485-511 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D
Friedman, M., 1956. The quantity theory of money: a restatement. In: Friedman, M. (Ed.), Studies in the quantity theory of money (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), pp. 3−21.
Friedman 1961 "The Lag in the Effect of Monetary Policy", Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 69, p.447-66 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/258537
Friedman, 1968, The Role of Monetary Policy, The American Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 1-17.
Friedman, 1970. "A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis, "NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, pp.-313-344
Friedman 1971 "A Monetary Theory of National Income", Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 79, pp. 323-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/259746
Friedman, B.M., 1975. Targets, instruments, and indicators of monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics 1, pp. 443−473 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(76)90013-1
Galí & Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, pages- 342-364
Ghatak and Spanjers, 2007 "Monetary policy rules in transition economies: the impact of ambiguity", International Journal of Development Issues, Vol.6 Iss:1, pp.26–37 Gordon, 1984, The Short Run Demand for Money: Reconsideration", Journal of Money. Credit, and Banking, Vol.16, No. 4, pp 234-246
GOB, Bangladesh Economic Review (Various Issues), Ministry of Finance, Government of Bangladesh
Gupta, and Kabundi, 2010: The effect of monetary policy on house price inflation: A factor augmented vector auto regression (FAVAR) approach, Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 37 Iss: 6, pp.616 – 626 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581011086657
Hossain A. 1988 A quarterly short run money demand model for Bangladesh 1974: 1985: 4, The Bangladesh Development Studies, 16, pp. 1 – 30.
Islam, 2010: Monetary Policy and Money Supply Process in Bangladesh: An Analytical Review, Institute of Governance Studies, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh, unpublished
Lucas, 1975. “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series 1, pp.19–46. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(76)80003-6
Mackinnon, White, et al, 1983 Test for model specification in the presence of alternative hypothesis: some further results, Journal of Econometrics, 21, pp. 53 – 70 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(83)90119-7
Malima, K.A. 1980, "Inflation in the Tanzania Environment" in Rwegasira K.S .P and L.A. Kanneworff, (eds.) Inflation in Tanzania (Causes, Effects and Control). Institute of Finance Management (IFM), Dar-es-Salaam, pp. 123-142
Mansur 2007: Cointegration, Error Correction and the Demand for Money in Bangladesh, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), ID code: 21026, unpublished
Maroney, & Hasan, et al, 2004: A macro econometric model of Bangladesh economy and its policy implications, Journal of Developing Areas 38.1 pp. 135-149. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2005.0013
Ramon Moreno & Agustin Villar, 2010. "Inflation expectations, persistence and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 77-92 Bank for International Settlements.
Obstfeld and Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w4693
Prasad, 2010, ”After the Fall”, IMF, Finance and Development, (June): pp.22-25
Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 812, University Library of Munich, Germany,143-165
Rwegasira, 1974. "Monetary Stability and Economic Development in Uchumi, Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 114-135
Subrat,and Ghatak, et al, 2007: Monetary policy rules in transition economies: the impact of ambiguity, International Journal of Development Issues, Vol. 6 Iss: 1, pp.26 – 37 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/14468950710830536
Sunkel, 1960, Inflation in Chile: Unorthodox approach. International Economic Papers, 10, 107-31
Tsaing, S.C. 1969, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, I(1969), 266–80 "A Critical Note on the Optimum Supply of Money", (p272) DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1991274
Vogel, R. 1974: “The dynamics of inflation in Latin America”. American Economics Review, pp. 102-14
Websites:
http://www.bangladesh-bank.org/pub/monthly/selectedecooind/magecoind.pdf
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=242341
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=248571
www.bb.org.bd 2.
www.mof.gov.bd 3.
www.economywatch.com 4
www.bbs.gov.bd/home.aspx
--0--